BITCOIN’S VALUE WAS FRAUD?

 The Coordinated Manipulation
According to research done by Professor John Griffin of Texas Finance, last years epic rise for Bitcoin was actually done by coordinated market manipulation.

Professor Griffin goes on to explain that he examined millions of transactions on cryptocurrency exchange Bitfinex, and says that “the US dollar pegged cryptocurrency Tether was used to buy Bitcoin at the times that the latter was falling- which helped ‘stabilize and manipulate’ the price”

First I’ll explain what Griffin’s said, and then I’ll explain why he’s wrong about Bitcoin but right about Tether. And it boils down to his understanding of how Exchanges work and how Bitcoin works.

Griffin said “Fraud and manipulation often leave footprints in the data and it’s nice to have the blockchain to track things,” Griffin told CNBC. Whenever bitcoin fell, Tether was used to buy it to prop up the price again.

“It was creating price support for bitcoin and, over the period that we examined, had huge price effects. Our research would indicate that there are sophisticated people harnessing investor interest for their benefit.”

Bitcoin started 2017 at below $1,000 and by Dec 2017 hit 20,000. But as if February to June 2018 it’s been jumping back and fourth from it’s lowest at $6k to the highest $10k (which didn’t even last)  Tether is the 11th largest cryptocurrency and is pegged to the US dollar. Some critics say Tether owners don’t have enough fiat currency to back its $2.5 billion market capitalization.

Bitfinex CEO J.L. van der Velde told CNBC that neither the exchange nor tether helped to boost bitcoin prices. “Bitfinex nor tether is, or has ever, engaged in any sort of market or price manipulation. Tether issuances cannot be used to prop up the price of bitcoin or any other coin/token on Bitfinex,”

Now here’s what I think:

I’ve personally used Tether but I do worry about it. A lot of people have accused Tether of fraud, and Tether certainly hasn’t proven the naysayers.  Do they have the 2.5 billion USD and how are they raising funds?  Essentially as far as I can see, Tether is a non-backed, way of essentially printing virtual USD.  I think Griffin is way off on this one.  USDT (Tether) is a convenient trading pair that can be used with some of the top cryptocurrencies to trade and exchange directly for other coins.

The issue is that a lot of people don’t realize most tokens and currencies are not directly convertible or tradeable for others on exchanges.  Generally you’ll have to sell your ABC alt-coin or tokens for Bitcoin, or USDT and then use the major currency you sold or exchanged to buy say another coin such as Ripple, Litecoin, Lisk etc..  So this is where USDT comes in, if Griffin thinks it propped up Bitcoin I think he is misunderstanding how the exchanges work.  Yes a lot of people are using USDT to buy other currencies but is USDT a market factor?  No, I don’t think so, it’s just simply convenient and I agree with Bitfinex that it doesn’t appear they are using it to prop up Bitcoin.

However, USDT could not be used in such a way if it wasn’t given prominence and primary trading pairs like Bitfinex and other major exchanges have used.  Could some of the exchanges be in cahoots with currencies like USDT and others?  Absolutely, and this is the more likely scenario of market manipulation in the sense that they essentially largely control which currencies fail and flourish.

Any coin that is used as a primary trading pair or in other words directly convertible has more value and will intrinsically be used more as a vehicle to buy coins like Bitcoin.

I think Griffin just raises the simple question about USDT being a fraud and this is the biggest concern but I highly doubt USDT’s existence or trading patterns are responsible for Bitcoin fluctuations directly.  He may derive this from trading patterns but I really just think USDT is a convenient and easy to understand intermediary trading pair vs how you wrap your mind around how many BTC another coin like Ripple, Ethereum or Litcoin is worth etc…

What do you think?

Cheers!
-A. Yasir

Cryptocurrency vs the Current Financial System Which is more evil?

Hello internet friends!

So I’ve had a lot of questions and concerns from friends and family about cryptocurrency with so many scary and dire predictions and proclamations in the MSM.

If you’ve heard the news lately you may think it would be crazy to ever get into cryptcurrency because the news says it’s a dangerous bubble, pyramid scheme, illegal, used to finance criminal activity, used to finance terrorism, is completely anonymous and 200% evil.

While there are definitely some truths to the MSM articles like most issues in life I feel it is with an agenda and not an accurate reflection of the true picture, reality and future of cryptocurrency.

To give you an idea of my perspective to be honest when my wife first told me about Bitcoin I said “there is PayPal”, “it will never be anything”, and there will be “lots of fraud and scams”.  I was right about the third one at least (1/3) :)

The Main Points The Media Makes About Cryptocurrency and How They Fair Against Fiat Currency

  1. Cryptocurrency facilitates illegal transactions, terrorism, money laundering by being anonymous and without regulation.
  2. Cryptocurrency is a bubble and pyramid scheme that won’t last.
  3. Investing in it is too speculative and risky.
  4. There are lots of scams.
  5. Coins are worth nothing because they were created from nothing.
  6. Cryptocurrency can and will be banned.

The reality as I see it in comparison to fiat

  1. While I am sure it is true crypto has been used for illegal purposes the same can be said of fiat cash ever since the beginning of time.  Cash can be used anonymously and is used that way each day.  I think this is a moot point since almost anything in the world with legitimate and good purpose can and will be used for illegal activities.
  2. I do believe crypto will have a serious crash in line with the 1929 Wall Street stock crash or the 2008 financial crisis but that didn’t stop stocks and I believe the same of crypto.
  3. This is a broad term, there are literally thousands of coins which serve completely different purposes.  There is no doubt some have stronger fundamentals and will last while others are truly worthless for various reasons.  There is also massive speculation in our traditional financial system, whether the US housing crisis that put people under water, penny stocks and failed stocks, bonds and mutual funds.
  4. This is absolutely true, there have been a lot of scams in the crypto world, however there are scams with fiat such as fake money, debit/credit card skimming etc.
  5. This is true, just as it was of fiat money but this depends on the time period.  It’s arguable that back when the gold standard existed that fiat had a certain value and was backed by gold, but today the world is freely printing money out of thin air or “nothing”.
  6. I do believe it will be banned in some countries, primarily what we’ve seen is exchanges getting shut down in China and Korea but it hasn’t stopped cryptocurrency from sky rocketing.

The Universal Truth

While the media does make some valid points, they are really blown out of perspective.  Cryptocurrency does have issues, as does fiat but what I suspect this really is about is the fact that our modern banking and financial system is at risk.  Since most cryptocurrencies are decentralized, no one person, organization typically has any control over them.  You cannot freeze an individual, organization or country’s assets anymore.  In times of war, duress or even genocide such as Myanmar it would be possible for the underbanked to use a cryptocurrency such as XLM (Stellar Lumens from the creator of XRP/Ripple) to safe guard your money across borders and against unjust seizure.  With cash or wire there would likely be no time to do such a thing if your city is being razed by the Burmese army.

There is significant risk in the future for cryptocurrency’s which really haven’t seen a seriously long, sustained correction.   Yes there have been flash crashes and drops of 25% in a day but they usually all come back higher than ever.  This is a bull market without question.  On that note I’d like to point out that the financial side of the crypto world functions almost entirely like the current financial system.

Take for example the dominant US dollar, it is still one of the most commonly used settlement currencies in the world which is a way it has artificially held value regardless of how the US economy has performed.

In the crypto world I feel Bitcoin/BTC is on top because it is the main currency used on trading exchanges.  In fact on most exchanges you have to convert your other coins into BTC usually to buy into other coins.  You can place traditional Limit and Stop Market orders as well.  In this sense the crypto world has volatility because it’s a fast changing world with new coins, players and buyers/sellers are coming in and out of the market.  You can see people taking profits when some coins surge, just as you would with traditional stocks.  If the currency or project behind the currency hasn’t changed in a negative way there’s usually no reason to worry or panic.  Instead seasoned investors will wait for the pullback to buy more of their favorite coins.

The Final Word

I think the death of cryptocurrency is highly anticipated and overstated.  I do agree the weak coins and ICOs will die, but the coins with strong fundamentals will not be going away.  Cryptocurrency is here to stay and there’s no way it can be stopped, it can be regulated and this will somewhat shape the future but we’re now in a period where more regular people will not only invest and trade in cryptocurrency but it will be used as commonly as everyday debit and credit, something that obviously banks and government will take issue with.  The answer is truly that you can’t fight the market or will of the people, there are solutions and ways for there to be a win-win but the bankers won’t let their market without a fight.