Bitcoin Fails To Defend 10K Mark

Let’s let the chart do the talking for the past 3 months where it currently sits at $9327.65

Bitcoin-2018-02-05-PriceChart

Back in February BTC posted the maximum high for the past 3 months of just over 11K.  As you can see from March to April the lowest moves of the recent past were posted around the 7K mark.  To me this looks like a classic sideways trading that eventually breaks out.  You can see since April there has been a steady upward trend.

BTC hasn’t been able to defend the 10K mark but I do believe we have stability around the 9K mark.  Some indicators claim BTC is currently neither overbought or oversold.  But common sense has to tell you that if the price is going down it appears we have more sellers than buyers at the $10K mark.  It could be people cashing out for fear of wondering when does BTC return back to the 20K mark?

Many people have said this  spells disaster but I really do think we are just getting started with the BTC rally and I think much higher prices are around the corner in the near future.  There has been a lot of positive news from around the world that seems to be increasingly towards accepting that BTC is here to stay.

Perhaps some regulators thought twice and realized that “like it or not BTC is too big and risky to ban”.  Because people can move BTC at will and it cannot be frozen or truly banned.  I think regulators are finding just as the case is with exchanges, if you put undue pressure on owners of cryptocurrency they will simply just move away to a friendlier jurisdiction.  I would imagine they should favor BTC as it is not anonymous and is easily and fully trackable.  If people switched to more private based coins they’ll have little chance at regulation such as with Monero.

Ripple Wants Government Regulation of Cryptocurrency

I have always believed regulation was inevitable and this is actually one of the reasons I invested in Ripple.  It’s no surprise that they are calling for regulation as they benefit the most.  As worried about them as I am (saving for another article) this is an excellent hedge against this inevitability.  Ripple stands to profit from this as it already has very good relationships with big finance and governments.  Any regulation is very likely to benefit Ripple the most.

Ripple’s, Ryan Zagone, ironically titled, “head of regulatory relations” has called on the UK to adopt 3-regulatory moves and has suggested they take a cue from Japan.  This is both good and bad, regulation, if fair and easy to follow can remove uncertainty and strengthen the countries that do it right.  I think Japan is a good example of regulation that has gone right and helped cryptocurrency flourish.

Zagone has called on the three issues to be regulated “namely consumer protection, financial stability and anti-money laundering “.  Consumer protection is a given and I wonder why no one has also said “insurance coverage” as this would take most of the risk out of holding cryptocurrency and the risk of theft and hacks.  When it comes to “financial stability” it depends on what he means and what the UK government would take it to mean?  I would take it that this would be the part that would help out Ripple and possibly stunt the growth of competitors to Ripple.  When it comes to anti-money laundering this is a given but again, how do you do it without harming or offending law abiding citizens?  Or will these laws and regulations be a pretext for both Ripple and Big Banking to squash the abilities of everyone else?

The UK Central Bank’s, Mark Carney has said the following about cryptocurrency.

  • “The time has come to hold the crypto-asset ecosystem to the same standards as the rest of the financial system. Being part of the financial system brings enormous privileges, but with them great responsibilities,” Carney said in a speech on Friday.
  • “A better path would be to regulate elements of the crypto-asset ecosystem to combat illicit activities, promote market integrity, and protect the safety and soundness of the financial system,” Carney said.
  • Carney also slammed the ability for cryptocurrencies to fulfil the role of money, saying they are “failing” as a medium of exchange and are “proving poor short-term stores of value.”
  • “This extreme volatility reflects in part that cryptocurrencies have neither intrinsic value nor any external backing. Their worth rests on beliefs regarding their future supply and demand —ultimately, whether they will be successful as money.”
  • “At present, in my view, crypto-assets do not appear to pose material risks to financial stability,” Carney said.

Well, Mr. Carney was as honest as he could be, from the banking sphere and without losing his job.  I agree that there is almost nothing backing most cryptocurrencies, aside from mining investment.  However, this is about the same, if not better than fiat which is printed without any backing of assets since the gold standard has long been abandoned.  But let’s read between the lines, he wants regulation and he wants cryptocurrency held to the same standards as traditional finance, but at the same time slams it as being a poor store of value (like Soros who now says he’s investing).  Regulation will be tricky, because you are then giving all cryptcurrency legitimacy as currency by regulating it as such or even to traditional financial standards.

Everyone has their own interest in all of this but it will be interesting to see how this plays out.  The game is different now and governments cannot easily seize crypto assets, nor can they shutdown major players who can move away from their jurisdiction with the click of a button.  If smart people are in charge of regulation they will do it right, but if bankers alone are involved, and continued to feel threatened, I predict carnage, and that it will ultimately harm or even topple our current financial system.

Let’s hope things go smooth and that regulators are not influenced too much more when it comes down to it.

 

Coinbase To Support Ethereum ERC20 Tokens

Coinbase just announced it will be supporting the trade of ERC20 tokens.  A lot of times in the crypto world I look and shake my head and I just can’t stop with this one.  I could see if Coinbase wanted to support actual currencies like Ripple, Lumens, Monero etc… those are reasonably safe currencies to invest in.

ICOs which are essentially crowdfunding/pseudo-stocks (depending on who you ask) are extremely risk and I would say about 90% of those are fraudulent in that they collect your coins and never intended to deliver anything.  I think we can all agree at any rate that ICOs are extremely risky and HODLING may be as useful with those tokens as holding RIM stock.

Coinbase has a huge client base and is one of the easiest ways for people to get into cryptocurrency.  However, they risk bringing regulatory wrath and also dampening new investors from coming in when they get burnt on these ICO scams.

It’s recently come to my attention that some people weren’t aware that Ethereum Smart Contracts or ERC20 tokens are not vetted, supported or approved by the Ethereum team in any way.  This is  huge issue of course and why I am so against smart contracts at the moment.  Let’s get cryptocurrency as an infrastructure in terms of B2B,B2C,C2C etc… working fast, efficiently, securely and easily before biting off more than we can chew!

I am also at a loss as to how the Coinbase legal team approved this one?  Did they run it by any counsel at all?  I think if and when people lose massive amounts that Coinbase could be held liable regardless of waivers and disclaimers for losses in some of the huge ICO busts and scams to come.  Especially when there are so many other avenues and stable currencies they could have directed their customers to.

I am fearful for the investors, for Coinbase and the cryptocurrency market as a whole but should these warnings go unheeded and “things go terribly wrong” then it would be a good, fresh start for the industry.  Investors also need to do their diligence and exercise good understanding and judgement before making investment decisions.

It will be interesting to see where this leads but I would never recommend any friend or family member to invest in any Ethereum Based Token ICO and to stick with solid and real cryptocurrencies that solve the problems of today.

Ripple’s First Central Bank Contract with Saudi Arabia!

This is huge news for Ripple but apparently at the time of writing Ripple has tumbled more than 5% to .957 USD (under a dollar now).  To be honest I do hold Ripple but I believe my analysis to be unbiased.

The news is huge that Ripple will help Saudi Arabia settle foreign currency transactions and shows Ripple has proven itself in the large scale banking and even central banking industry.  It looks like other gulf countries including the UAE (United Arab Emirates) are going to be involved as well which could be really huge for Ripple.  One thing that many have said though is that none of these banking organizations involved are really interested in XRP.  They are using Ripple’s network but these transactions are not being funded or traded in XRP itself.

Some industry analysts have speculated that Ripple’s relationship with big banks is so strong that it may have strong incentive in the future to literally kill/dissolve XRP.

Despite this my outlook on Ripple is strong with the reservations about it mainly being a tool for large banks.  Don’t get me wrong, the technology works well for transactions in terms of being low-fee, fast not having to sync the blockchain, very secure (aside from no first party wallets….) but can we trust this company to protect our interests and those of its large banking clients?

I think this is why Ripple has been volatile itself, from an investment standpoint it sounds great but also bad because Ripple is kind of a crypto-rebel by essentially being the tool that cryptocurrency was meant to fight or free us from (the tool of big banks and now Saudi Arabia’s central bank.).

To look at it from the other perspective though this could mean a huge rise for Ripple in valuation but it could also mean the opposite.  Ripple has carved out an incredible niche but at the same time risks alienating its main users and investors.  The question is what will Ripple as a private and centralized blockchain do?

I do agree the author of the quoted article above could very well have it right for the end game.   It’s a shame because Ripple solves a number of key issues while also introducing security and trust issues at the same time.  Ripple works well but will it literally sell us users and investors out to central banks in the future?

I’ve attempted to play the lotto and will seek Ripple’s comment on these concerns but regardless of assurances only time will tell where things head.

Cryptocurrency vs the Current Financial System Which is more evil?

Hello internet friends!

So I’ve had a lot of questions and concerns from friends and family about cryptocurrency with so many scary and dire predictions and proclamations in the MSM.

If you’ve heard the news lately you may think it would be crazy to ever get into cryptcurrency because the news says it’s a dangerous bubble, pyramid scheme, illegal, used to finance criminal activity, used to finance terrorism, is completely anonymous and 200% evil.

While there are definitely some truths to the MSM articles like most issues in life I feel it is with an agenda and not an accurate reflection of the true picture, reality and future of cryptocurrency.

To give you an idea of my perspective to be honest when my wife first told me about Bitcoin I said “there is PayPal”, “it will never be anything”, and there will be “lots of fraud and scams”.  I was right about the third one at least (1/3) :)

The Main Points The Media Makes About Cryptocurrency and How They Fair Against Fiat Currency

  1. Cryptocurrency facilitates illegal transactions, terrorism, money laundering by being anonymous and without regulation.
  2. Cryptocurrency is a bubble and pyramid scheme that won’t last.
  3. Investing in it is too speculative and risky.
  4. There are lots of scams.
  5. Coins are worth nothing because they were created from nothing.
  6. Cryptocurrency can and will be banned.

The reality as I see it in comparison to fiat

  1. While I am sure it is true crypto has been used for illegal purposes the same can be said of fiat cash ever since the beginning of time.  Cash can be used anonymously and is used that way each day.  I think this is a moot point since almost anything in the world with legitimate and good purpose can and will be used for illegal activities.
  2. I do believe crypto will have a serious crash in line with the 1929 Wall Street stock crash or the 2008 financial crisis but that didn’t stop stocks and I believe the same of crypto.
  3. This is a broad term, there are literally thousands of coins which serve completely different purposes.  There is no doubt some have stronger fundamentals and will last while others are truly worthless for various reasons.  There is also massive speculation in our traditional financial system, whether the US housing crisis that put people under water, penny stocks and failed stocks, bonds and mutual funds.
  4. This is absolutely true, there have been a lot of scams in the crypto world, however there are scams with fiat such as fake money, debit/credit card skimming etc.
  5. This is true, just as it was of fiat money but this depends on the time period.  It’s arguable that back when the gold standard existed that fiat had a certain value and was backed by gold, but today the world is freely printing money out of thin air or “nothing”.
  6. I do believe it will be banned in some countries, primarily what we’ve seen is exchanges getting shut down in China and Korea but it hasn’t stopped cryptocurrency from sky rocketing.

The Universal Truth

While the media does make some valid points, they are really blown out of perspective.  Cryptocurrency does have issues, as does fiat but what I suspect this really is about is the fact that our modern banking and financial system is at risk.  Since most cryptocurrencies are decentralized, no one person, organization typically has any control over them.  You cannot freeze an individual, organization or country’s assets anymore.  In times of war, duress or even genocide such as Myanmar it would be possible for the underbanked to use a cryptocurrency such as XLM (Stellar Lumens from the creator of XRP/Ripple) to safe guard your money across borders and against unjust seizure.  With cash or wire there would likely be no time to do such a thing if your city is being razed by the Burmese army.

There is significant risk in the future for cryptocurrency’s which really haven’t seen a seriously long, sustained correction.   Yes there have been flash crashes and drops of 25% in a day but they usually all come back higher than ever.  This is a bull market without question.  On that note I’d like to point out that the financial side of the crypto world functions almost entirely like the current financial system.

Take for example the dominant US dollar, it is still one of the most commonly used settlement currencies in the world which is a way it has artificially held value regardless of how the US economy has performed.

In the crypto world I feel Bitcoin/BTC is on top because it is the main currency used on trading exchanges.  In fact on most exchanges you have to convert your other coins into BTC usually to buy into other coins.  You can place traditional Limit and Stop Market orders as well.  In this sense the crypto world has volatility because it’s a fast changing world with new coins, players and buyers/sellers are coming in and out of the market.  You can see people taking profits when some coins surge, just as you would with traditional stocks.  If the currency or project behind the currency hasn’t changed in a negative way there’s usually no reason to worry or panic.  Instead seasoned investors will wait for the pullback to buy more of their favorite coins.

The Final Word

I think the death of cryptocurrency is highly anticipated and overstated.  I do agree the weak coins and ICOs will die, but the coins with strong fundamentals will not be going away.  Cryptocurrency is here to stay and there’s no way it can be stopped, it can be regulated and this will somewhat shape the future but we’re now in a period where more regular people will not only invest and trade in cryptocurrency but it will be used as commonly as everyday debit and credit, something that obviously banks and government will take issue with.  The answer is truly that you can’t fight the market or will of the people, there are solutions and ways for there to be a win-win but the bankers won’t let their market without a fight.

IoT (Internet of Things) Security Issues Increase

IoT (Internet of Things) is simply a fancy way of expressing that we have more devices online and connected to the internet than ever before when compared to my favorite tradition of Desktop PCs, Tablets and Phones. With the advent of embedded computing becoming more affordable, powerful and easier to develop than ever using tools like Raspberry Pi based on the ARM platform, this means we have a plethora of new devices and embedded, internet connected devices added to every day things we use.

Common examples of these are new cars, alarm systems, video cameras/surveillance systems, fridges, stoves, home locks, lights, watches, medical equipment and so much more.
The security issue with these devices is more challenging and complex than ever before for both the end user and businesses using them.

There is no doubt or anyone in denial that it’s an issue and the privacy, security and financial risks can be quite high. Security in general works on the basis of weakest link and it is arguable that a random internet connected device in your house or business poses an immense security risk with some of these devices having little to no security or out in the wild vulnerabilities.

These devices are certainly not impossible to secure, in fact the majority of them are easy to secure but it’s simply not the forefront or priority of most device makers or developers. Because of this devices are often completely unsecured and don’t even need to be hacked, sometimes they run a telnet,ssh or web daemon which can be accessed with no password or a dictionary password like admin/admin root/root or with just a username. There are others which cannot be easily updated which have vulnerabilities that end up being found later and exploited. Even more difficult some of these devices are physically inaccessible and installed in appliances and other devices where it can be harder to update them. A lot of companies would be reluctant to push out updates because often if the update failed it would render the device useless without physical intervention.

We can only hope standards emerge in the industry where updates will be easier, standard and guaranteed but this is unlikely to happen. Even with companies who use these products and recognize it is an issue there is only so much planning that can be done for devices that are not easily managed or accessible.

The only practical solution today is to try to firewall and physically isolate IoT devices where ever possible to reduce the risk (but for a lot of companies this is not easy or practical). At the end of the day more advanced network planning and management will be required and so will hardware firewalls play an ever increasing role in trying to prevent and detect attacks to these devices.

Trading Cryptocurrency Emotionally Is Good For Me and Bad For You!

With all the hype of cryptocurrency driving all of the coins it creates both opportunities and risks depending on where you’ve bought in and your emotional state.
Emotional buying is for example hearing Bitcoin has hit $6000 USD and then buying it worrying that it is your last chance. In reality buying into new highs doesn’t leave a lot of room for comfortable declines which is why I never buy new highs but patiently wait for a strong pullback. But we must always remember the famous proverbs of “Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy”, “Be Greedy When Others Are Fearful”, “Sharp Rises Are Often Followed By Sharp Corrections”, “What Goes Up Must Come Down” which depending on the time period in general means manage risk, do not trade on emotion, and be prepared that markets can turn either way without warning or in a sudden bearish or bullish trend. If all goes wrong just remember “Buy Low, Sell High” of course as simple as these terms are very few of us actually do or achieve such simple sayings as the end result is often more complex based on a lack of discipline or abundance of emotion.

I fully agree with the many parties that say cryptocurrency is extremely risk, volatile and does trade like the stock market with even less safety and regulation. Therefore my approach is to treat such trading as extremely high risk stock investment with the goal of limiting risk and exposure.

In the case of Bitcoin if you look the chart for the past few years it has been extremely volatile and has had numerous crashes. A lot of people made a lot of money by holding and believing in the long-term value, but just as many lost huge amounts by panicking and selling off at the bottom. At the end of the day the best of us cannot always predict that we know the top or bottom of a market. Instead it is important to look at the fundamentals. Bitcoin is still #1 by market cap today, unless it were specifically banned around the world or the entire network or blockchain itself was compromised there’s no reason to panic based on this kind of emotion. I echo a similar sentiment when people rush to the markets when Bitcoin is the news when things are flying high is when you have the most risk. Before some of you think I’m suggesting to be a contrarian on a fundamental market I’m just saying you shouldn’t fight the trend or the market but be sensible. If you’ve made your own research or belief that a currency is in a bullish upswing then wait for an opportunity such as the “sharp correction” that has been the trend with large rises in cryptocurrency.

Stick to your plan unless the fundamentals have changed so unless Bitcoin has been banned around the world or the blockchain has been compromised or some other fundamental value of Bitcoin has been eroded it doesn’t make sense to dump it on a sharp decline (well it’s good for me and other holders) but for yourself it would probably disastrous.

I am mainly quoting Bitcoin but whenever I watch the charts of the top currencies by market cap I see a very similar trend usually, that often all currencies will be diving or climbing at the same time as a generalization.

The above strategy is only for coins that you have reason or proof have real value and long-term viability. If you have invested in a new ICO and could realize a large profit shortly after I would sell a large portion of that position and continue to hold. In that way you’ve maximized your profit and limited your risk exposure.

I’m going to give you an example of when I bought into some Litecoin. I noticed a sharp decline that eventually hit 5% Monday morning just after midnight and keep watching it. Once the market hit -5% and climbed to -4.5% I bought without regret even though I observed later on the day the decline hit as high as about -8-10%. Obviously buying lower would have been better but in recent trends I’ve seen fast recoveries I was happy with the likelihood that Litecoin would recover my 4.5% discount and more in a few days and it has currently risen to +5.89%. Not a bad spread for less than 24 hours! I think the key is not to be greedy and try to plan what the purpose is.

In my case I am watching some of the top 20 coins in market cap and looking for the chance to trade some Litecoins as they go up and some of the others decline to maximize profit and minimize risk.

Going back to the point of the article is that try not to be emotional when buying or selling, but know that everyone’s actions create an opportunity on either side.

Good luck to all of my fellow traders and please share your thoughts and strategies in the comments!

Disclaimer I am by no means giving out financial or trading advice and am simply giving my opinion, experience and rational for my personal decisions.