Swiss Researchers Forecast Sideways Trading and Downward Pressure on Bitcoin for 2018

They have based it on Metcalfe’s law which says at this point that Bitcoin could lose another 27%.  The group also cites the part I agree with, in that so far cryptocurrency prices are mainly driven by Bitcoin which means Altcoins (other than Bitcoin) have risen and fallen in direct correlation.

Where I am not sure if I agree or disagree is their theory that a lot of this is driven by fear in the news.  While I am sure it is, if the fear is unfounded why should bad news reflect on the long-term valuation?

A sensible market would be wise to react to say the hacks that have happened to Ethereum or the fact that illegal content has been inserted into the Bitcoin Blockchain.  That is bad news that has relevance since these issues potentially threaten the integrity of the entire blockchain.

While we’re on the topic of Metcalfe’s law, since cryptocurrency is a completely new and largely irrational market can we trust this is a valid predictor?  I am not aware that any other traditional models have successfully called any of the major events in cryptocurrency.

I do agree it was time for a significant correction but the same has happened in commodities and stocks before, yet the stock markets keep moving (albeit with a lot of money printing and manipulation-is that what regulators mean by regulation for cryptocurrency? :) ).

Only time will tell where things head but I do think that currencies that are efficient, secure and easy to use will stand the test of time (which admittedly are very few and I cannot think of a single one that solves all of the issues just yet).

Bitcoin Down 53%? Time to panic or time to be happy?

We’ve got to put this all into perspective when people come panicking and asking if you’ve sold all of your Bitcoin.  Just hold, the chart isn’t a lot different than a lot of stocks or commodities.  Let’s speak in terms of the chart since May of 2016.

 

BitcoinMay-2016-toApril-01-2018

Let’s first look back to May 2016 where it was worth about $423 USD.  Is today’s $6974.84 USD so bad?

How about April 20, 2017 whereit was worth $1216 is that so bad compared to today?

The time that makes people nervous is when Bitcoin went on a bullrun around November 1st, 2017 and was worth around $6700 USD to an all time high of around $19500 on December 16th.  I would expect like with any stock that there will be a digestion period or a pullback.

Am I worried yet?  No, unless Bitcoin drops below a year ago’s $1000 why would anyone worry?

Bitcoin on top of that now owns about 50% of the market with this drop so it has shown resiliency and leadership.

It’s not time to panic, it is time to hold steady and wait for the next bull run.  At the end of the day government policy can’t stop Bitcoin.  There will always be a country where it is legal and exchangeable.  If a blanket ban happens people will start trading directly with Bitcoin for other goods.  There’s no way people who have invested thousands of dollars in hardware and power will be throwing these coins away or walking away from them.

What the FUD (Fear Uncertainty and Doubt)

There is no doubt 2018 has been an incredibly tumultuous start for cryptocurrency.  But I’ll say it again, there are still huge gains for the majority of people unless they bought at the end of 2017.  There are still valid reasons to be both bearish and bullish, depending on which segment of cryptocurrency you are talking about.

I think first we should think what is really driving down the pricing?  People were buying in like crazy and prices were going sky high for both Bitcoin and Altcoins.  I’ve always had reservations about particular currencies and ICOs but the majority did not.

My belief is that there is a concerted world-wide effort by government and finance moguls to dethrone cryptocurrency.  Governments hate it because it threatens the entire central banking system, and bankers hate it for the same reason.  Yes there are some issues with ICOs but there are also stock market scams to this very day.  Fiat is also used illegally and counterfeited all the time and it never got banned.

So with that, I propose that statements from governments and banks are akin to all out war on cryptocurrency.  In 2018 we are seeing that plan move into action as they panicked as they saw the market cap grow exponentially in 2017.

However, much like Gold or Silver, it can only be kept down for so long.  You can push them down under the water but they come floating and rushing back to the top.  I think that is what will happen with cryptocurrency in the near-time.

Now don’t get me wrong, there are real issues and risks and I’ve talked about those endlessly.  The winners will be the ones who embrace change and understand the basics of business and IT security have been breached with most cryptocurrencies and ICOs.  The ones who solve these problems and the ones who invest in the solutions will be the long-term winners.  I dare say any project and investor who doesn’t take part in the solution may be on the dot-bomb side (an era which I feel many have never known or forgotten).

There is a lot of FUD but is artificially manipulated and perpetuated in the media and also directly with attacks on the price through large whale investors/hedgefund managers selling and controlling the price of cryptocurrency.

I am bullish on crypto still because there are a lot of astute and average investors who have not jumped in.  Eventually they will jump in, and the moment they do is when cryptocurrency will enter a stratospheric increase in market cap.  I also feel the ones who wait will be more diligent and disciplined investors (the kind who didn’t panic during 2008).

Time will tell but my call is for the bulls!

300Billion in Market Cap Lost in Cryptocurrency in 2018

Now before we either all panic of HODL our funds I think it’s time to take a step back.  I don’t think cryptocurrency is going anywhere regardless of the bad news and government threats.

But with that said let’s take an even further step back and ask what has worked, what hasn’t worked and why has this happened to the market?

There are a lot of factors but I’ll speak about the ones that I think are most significant.

Bad News

The news is key here because a lot of family and friends are worried that all of us crypto holders have lost all of our money.  Even with Bitcoin around the $7-$10K mark, unless you bought in at the end of last year you’re still probably doing very well.  In general the market for most major currencies is up well over what it was in the first 3 quarters of 2017.  However, there is no denying that the charts look a little bearish but I think there will be a breakout in the coming months.

Government/Finance Manipulation

Much like the news, government and big financiers are having a big impact.  We know hedgefund investors have poured in billions.  Whether by intention or not a lot of them could be pulling money out of certain currencies to create an artificial crash and panic selling.

Too Many ICO Scams

I used to feel the word scam was used too liberally in the digital age of many honest IT companies.   However, in terms of ICO even the Ethereum Founder, Vitaly Buterik says 90% of tokens on his network are scams.  This is a very rational reason that will have a huge chill on investment. I would say blame a good portion of these problems on Ethereum honestly.  The unregulated and wild wild west of ICOs have brought government wrath and regulators banging on the door of all crypto stakeholders.

Lack of Common Sense and Proper Business and IT Practices

It is very clear to me in looking at how a lot of teams and ICOs operate that a good portion of people holding power in the cryptoworld have no clue.  If they did a lot of common sense things would be happening and they simply aren’t.

Such as Coinbase’s decision to open itself and its investors for huge losses and liability by selling Ethereum ERC20 Tokens.

The very idea of “free for all” in the cryptoworld reminds of the 90’s of the wild wild west of the World Wide Web and the lessons I thought we all learned.  Admittedly, and clearly, a lot of people have forgotten or were not old enough to be around for that.

I could say more but it’s so clear that essential business and IT practices have been thrown to the wind.  This is a huge impact on a lot of the issues the cryptoworld has been facing.

The Coming

I am still very optimistic about the long-term crypto outcome, but there are a lot of self-created and external factors at this moment.  I do think it is temporary but a dot bomb in crypto will certainly be repeated and appear.  The currencies and teams who didn’t learn from the 90’s will likely be the first ones swept away, leaving way for the next generation of cryptocurrency that simply just works for people and business.

What does “HODLING” mean in cryptocurrency and Bitcoin Trading Strategy?

HODLING-POST-AreebYasir

So here’s the post on Bitcointalk.org that apparently started it all once it made the rounds on reddit:

 

I type d that tyitle twice because I knew it was wrong the first time.  Still wrong.  w/e.  GF’s out at a lesbian bar, BTC crashing WHY AM I HOLDING? I’LL TELL YOU WHY.  It’s because I’m a bad trader and I KNOW I’M A BAD TRADER.  Yeah you good traders can spot the highs and the lows pit pat piffy wing wong wang just like that and make a millino bucks sure no problem bro.  Likewise the weak hands are like OH NO IT’S GOING DOWN I’M GONNA SELL he he he and then they’re like OH GOD MY ASSHOLE when the SMART traders who KNOW WHAT THE FUCK THEY’RE DOING buy back in but you know what?  I’m not part of that group.  When the traders buy back in I’m already part of the market capital so GUESS WHO YOU’RE CHEATING day traders NOT ME~!  Those taunt threads saying “OHH YOU SHOULD HAVE SOLD” YEAH NO SHIT.  NO SHIT I SHOULD HAVE SOLD.  I SHOULD HAVE SOLD MOMENTS BEFORE EVERY SELL AND BOUGHT MOMENTS BEFORE EVERY BUY BUT YOU KNOW WHAT NOT EVERYBODY IS AS COOL AS YOU.  You only sell in a bear market if you are a good day trader or an illusioned noob.  The people inbetween hold.  In a zero-sum game such as this, traders can only take your money if you sell.

My wife asked me what the term “HODLING” or “HODL” meant because it’s been referenced all over social media.  I honestly just thought it was the ticket symbol for Interstellar Holdings HOLD spelled wrong!

In the above post the poster goes on a rant about why they decided to hold apparently to spite the “day traders”.  Some have said the poster was drunk but could it also just be an angry rant, combined with life issues and a few typos?

We may never know for sure because I haven’t read the hundreds of pages in the thread and I am not sure where the poster is now or if they’ve still held their BTC or not.  If they’ve still hold on until recently they’ve obviously been right to hold but as we all say “hindsight is 20/20” back in those days no one was sure Bitcoin would continue its metaphoric rise to hit the 20K mark and settle back down at the approximately 13K mark at the time of this writing.

Whatever the real story may have been behind the post, a lot of crypto traders and investors are really referring this rant to explain just how wise it is to hold onto their currency despite apparent crashes.

Personally I’m all for HODLING if it’s based on fear and not by a real technical or game changer in a currency.