Bitcoin Down 53%? Time to panic or time to be happy?

We’ve got to put this all into perspective when people come panicking and asking if you’ve sold all of your Bitcoin.  Just hold, the chart isn’t a lot different than a lot of stocks or commodities.  Let’s speak in terms of the chart since May of 2016.

 

BitcoinMay-2016-toApril-01-2018

Let’s first look back to May 2016 where it was worth about $423 USD.  Is today’s $6974.84 USD so bad?

How about April 20, 2017 whereit was worth $1216 is that so bad compared to today?

The time that makes people nervous is when Bitcoin went on a bullrun around November 1st, 2017 and was worth around $6700 USD to an all time high of around $19500 on December 16th.  I would expect like with any stock that there will be a digestion period or a pullback.

Am I worried yet?  No, unless Bitcoin drops below a year ago’s $1000 why would anyone worry?

Bitcoin on top of that now owns about 50% of the market with this drop so it has shown resiliency and leadership.

It’s not time to panic, it is time to hold steady and wait for the next bull run.  At the end of the day government policy can’t stop Bitcoin.  There will always be a country where it is legal and exchangeable.  If a blanket ban happens people will start trading directly with Bitcoin for other goods.  There’s no way people who have invested thousands of dollars in hardware and power will be throwing these coins away or walking away from them.

Hardforks Are Scams Says Charlie Lee LTC Creator

Charlie has been saying exactly what I’ve been.  Hardforks are essentially scams that devalue the original coin and cause confusion.  At the same time, I’m sure he meant well but it never helped that he announced he sold all of his LTC.  It’s akin to a CEO selling all of their stock and saying “I still believe in the company”.  Granted this happened well before this scam hardfork so the hardfork is surely what caused the latest drop.

CharlieLee-LTC-Litecoin-Founder-Says-Forks-Scam-Confusing

As we can see after Litecoin Cash, the real and original Litecoin went down in value.

Charlie also correctly warns not to give your private keys to these scammers.  Whether Bitcoin Cash, Bitcoin Gold, Litcoin Cash and the many scam coins they require you to give your private keys to their wallets (if they even create one).  The risk there is that the developers or wallet creator will steal your original coins and this has happened already with the Bitcoin Gold Scam.

LitecoinSlide

I think exchanges should outright refuse to deal with these scam coins.

The underlying issue is simply that why are hardforks possible at all?  Counterfeiting is so easy with these opensource, public and permssionless blockchains.  To me it is a complete security and privacy flaw that was well-intentioned but simply doesn’t work.

Going forward, community maintained coins that cannot be forked, that are secure, private and are real time will be the long-term ones to invest in and the long-term winners.

Telegram Raises 1.2Billion in unnecessary ICO

I’ve checked their website but not the whitepaper (it took forever and never loaded-why use a PDF and a slow server?) and I’m shaking my head.  There is little to no background on the website about exactly why this coin is needed, what it does or what it solves.

Granted they do say it is fast, allows decentralized apps but there are little details that are discernible to me.  I remain unconvinced that it is really anything but a cash grab like most ICOs are.

It’s hard to figure out if they are trying to be an Ethereum or a currency and how they would do things better?

Based on the website having just about 2 paragraphs of information I am very skeptical but time will tell.  I’m certainly not going to invest based on this information.  The question really remains is why would Telegram even need the money?

Surely they would already have enough to do this project and it should already be done based on their resources.  For that reason alone it reminds me of another regret from FINOM.  FINOM convinced me because they have existing projects up, running and making money and it turned it to be a scam (I never received my tokens and see no evidence of anything being delivered in terms of performance).

Telegram looks to be about the same, they have a working application that is successful.  Why do you need to collect money at all if it’s not just a cash grab?

I think that is the litmus test for judging ICOs which appear to come from trustworthy teams and successful projects.  If they should already have the money and resources and are doing an ICO, they chances are it’s only to collect your coins.

 

Ethereum Developers Consider Bricking Bitmain’s Antminer ETHash Based ASIC

ETHash has always been considered “ASIC resistant” which is that the made algorithm so it wouldn’t be easy to make an ASIC for it like SHA-256 for Bitcoin, Scrypt for Litecoin and others.  This has been a very controversial issue especially since Bitmain announced they have Cryptonight miners for Monero and ETHash miners for Ethereum to be released soon.

At first I thought the developers had a plan to inject some malicious code that would literally brick the miners firmware or something similar, but the idea of hardforking is much more tame and harmless to everyone but Bitmain and their clients.  There’s also a lot at stake for Bitmain who could be in serious trouble from its buyers if they ship miners that are completely useless.  It remains unseen to know if they could update their firmware to compensate or if completely new ASIC hardware would be required for the update in algorithms.  Either way if Bitmain cannot deliver, it could push them to the brink or at least serious financial damage.  It does cost a lot to R&D and manufacture these ASICs and I could see this pushing them out of business or close to it.

Monero is hardforking in less than 5 days to combat this issue but the Ethereum team is still debating what to do.

Monero-Hardforks-Response-To-Bitmain-ASIC

This is a very interesting situation with competing interests and warring camps involved.  But to me this really outlines serious security flaws with Monero, Ethereum and all other Public, Permissionless Blockchain cryptocurrencies (the vast majority including Bitcoin, Litecoin etc..).

Hardforks are usually done for bad reasons, to counterfeit and copy an existing coin as an easy cashgrab (eg. Bitcoin Gold, Bitcoin Cash etc.. Litecoin Cash).  That is one serious integrity and security issue there.  Why is it even possible to literally copy, counterfeit almost any coin?  It devalues the original coin and is essentially stealing from the original coin holders and developers.

But in this case Monero and Ethereum would be doing hardforks for a “good reason” but it’s still a pain.   Would you accept it if your bank did a hardfork and your account stopped working or by not upgrading on time your currency could be lost or converted to another?  I understand why they want to stop ASICs but to me Bitmain is not the problem itself, they are simply exploiting, for profit the weakness that all cryptocurrencies have.  This weakness of PoW or mining is supposed to secure the network but in its absurdity it just makes things slow, insecure and ensures “whoever has the most money to buy more hashing power will control the currency”.  Making it even worse, mining pools and large farms could wreak havoc by broadcasting false transactions, causing others to lose money where they think they’ve received money they haven’t.

Going back to the purpose of mining, in reality today it guarantees two things.  0 security, slow transactions and centralization.  It creates a virtual arms race of whoever can buy enough hashing power is the winner and owner.  This was never the intention of Satoshi or cryptocurrencies.  There’s no way a small, average person will ever be an equal stakeholder in cryptocurrency.  Whether everyone uses an ASIC, CPU or GPU the issue remains the same.  It is a flaw and weakeness in how cryptocurrencies work.

The solution in my view is to make a community-based coin that works off PoS (Proof of State).  Typically these kinds of currencies will be faster and they can be more secure if they are not permissionless (a nice way of saying no security at all and EVERYONE can access the network and broadcast any transaction whether valid or fraudulent).  The whole world shouldn’t be involved in processing my payment for a coffee and they definitely shouldn’t know about it!

So to me when I see people say “mining secures the network”, that was the intention but in practice it’s not the case.

Some serious rewrites in the architecture of all currencies need to be rewritten and the permissionless design and PoW must come to an end for cryptocurrencies to be actually be usable, functional and sustainable for both personal and business use.

The fact that hardforks are even possible or even worse, necessary to stop others from obtaining too much hashing power is proof of concept that mining just doesn’t work.

 

 

The Bitcoin “Bubble” May Pop But Rise Again

I know the news is in full panic mode and for partially good reason.  Not only has the market shrunk and fallen but it appears new investors are staying out.  The average investor in my opinion is still on the sidelines and they will be until things become more clear.

With that said I am HODLING and not panicking…….well except for ICOs based on Ethereum ERC20 Tokens like Finom, Tron, Bitclave, Bloom, all of who appear to have produced nothing so far.  In all fairness it takes time but my appetite for ICO and tokens is saturated.  I truly feel 99% are scams that will never produce anything and therefore the return will in the end be 0.  This is because those tokens are just an investment in what is often a bad idea or an idea that will never be executed or completed as advertised.   So for your tokens, I say it is time to panic and rightfully so.  That being said I am HODLING those too but wouldn’t hesitate to unload most of them should there be a good opportunity for return (unless I still believe in the project).

For cryptocurrencies that are usable and have real value I believe they will rise again just like the stock market regardless  of what happens.  There are a lot of remorseful people who sold their Bitcoins and Litecoins at very low levels when things weren’t looking up.  In all fairness in this new market it’s hard to be sure where things will end.

But I’m of the opinion that I will hold for years if necessary, the same discipline one should use for commodities in the stock market (unless an underlying valuation aspect has significantly or permanently changed).  From that perspective I think cryptocurrency is here, so there is demand, and it will continue to grow and be more popular.  The stock market has had far worse happen to it and recovered (however as a fan of Jim Rogers I do believe this next crash that Wall Street is due for may never recover or not for a long time).  Much like cryptocurrencies, we see the market on Wall Street can be artificially manipulated up or down.  I believe the same players are using these tactics in cryptocurrency, such as similar stock market scandals where the elite and wealthy trick people into selling short while they buy it all and sell high later on.

I am long on cryptocurrencies which involve and have a minimum bureaucracy that just get things done.  I’ve said it before but simple changes shouldn’t be debated or discussed, if a currency isn’t functioning properly then if the block size or time needs to be changed just do it!  Some things needn’t and shouldn’t be debated if they are necessary.  This is again where I disagree with hardforks and why they shouldn’t be possible.  If there is really an ideological split then the team who disagrees should start their own currency from scratch.

In reality though we just need teams around that know business, IT and security rather than expert marketers and sales people.  I think the industry will naturally head in that direction inevitably as a result of both regulation and genuine issues with the way things are done now.

For one, as a business it is still hard to integrate cryptocurrency and insecure (more on that in another article) but the revolution will come.  If the community does it, then the majority will benefit but if a government, bank or other large corporate entity does it, it will not benefit us.  So it’s time to check ourselves, pack up, roll up our sleeves and get to work!

What the FUD (Fear Uncertainty and Doubt)

There is no doubt 2018 has been an incredibly tumultuous start for cryptocurrency.  But I’ll say it again, there are still huge gains for the majority of people unless they bought at the end of 2017.  There are still valid reasons to be both bearish and bullish, depending on which segment of cryptocurrency you are talking about.

I think first we should think what is really driving down the pricing?  People were buying in like crazy and prices were going sky high for both Bitcoin and Altcoins.  I’ve always had reservations about particular currencies and ICOs but the majority did not.

My belief is that there is a concerted world-wide effort by government and finance moguls to dethrone cryptocurrency.  Governments hate it because it threatens the entire central banking system, and bankers hate it for the same reason.  Yes there are some issues with ICOs but there are also stock market scams to this very day.  Fiat is also used illegally and counterfeited all the time and it never got banned.

So with that, I propose that statements from governments and banks are akin to all out war on cryptocurrency.  In 2018 we are seeing that plan move into action as they panicked as they saw the market cap grow exponentially in 2017.

However, much like Gold or Silver, it can only be kept down for so long.  You can push them down under the water but they come floating and rushing back to the top.  I think that is what will happen with cryptocurrency in the near-time.

Now don’t get me wrong, there are real issues and risks and I’ve talked about those endlessly.  The winners will be the ones who embrace change and understand the basics of business and IT security have been breached with most cryptocurrencies and ICOs.  The ones who solve these problems and the ones who invest in the solutions will be the long-term winners.  I dare say any project and investor who doesn’t take part in the solution may be on the dot-bomb side (an era which I feel many have never known or forgotten).

There is a lot of FUD but is artificially manipulated and perpetuated in the media and also directly with attacks on the price through large whale investors/hedgefund managers selling and controlling the price of cryptocurrency.

I am bullish on crypto still because there are a lot of astute and average investors who have not jumped in.  Eventually they will jump in, and the moment they do is when cryptocurrency will enter a stratospheric increase in market cap.  I also feel the ones who wait will be more diligent and disciplined investors (the kind who didn’t panic during 2008).

Time will tell but my call is for the bulls!

Cryptocurrency Groups Sue Google, Facebook, Twitter and Yandex For Advertising Ban

This is very interesting and about high time.  There is hardly any legal basis to single out the banning of cryptocurrency and ICOs when so many other questionable things are promoted on Google, Facebook and Twitter.  They could have probably gotten away with banning a few confirmed scam coins or ICOs but they’d also have to demonstrate similar action in other industries that they have never done with this.

The allegation of collusion is important and I am very curious how this plays out.  My suspicion is that these actions are voluntary.  The CEOs of these companies were essentially convinced and paid out to it by stakeholders of fiat and traditional securities.  If not that, here would be an interesting defense if they could make such a defense legally in this scenario I propose.  Of course all 3 of the major companies are based in the US and are subject to the laws of the US including being obliged to co-operate by providing the NSA backdoors for spying.  What if under the pretext of national security these companies were forced to ban cryptocurrency advertising?  It may sound far fetched but the US government even wanted to put tariffs on Canada during negotiations for NAFTA under the pre-text of National Security.

It is hard to say for sure what the truth is but I’ll be following these lawsuits as some of the truth may come out in the reply to the claim, discovery and other filings.  One thing I am sure of is that neither company came up with the idea of their own volition.  It would be another thing to prove which external force or entity is really responsible for this.  Financially it makes little sense since they all stood to profit more from the increased advertising revenue so it is very plausible that some other stakeholders made an offer they couldn’t refuse whether in the form of enticement or being obliged by law (even if falsely under the pre-text of national security).

 

300Billion in Market Cap Lost in Cryptocurrency in 2018

Now before we either all panic of HODL our funds I think it’s time to take a step back.  I don’t think cryptocurrency is going anywhere regardless of the bad news and government threats.

But with that said let’s take an even further step back and ask what has worked, what hasn’t worked and why has this happened to the market?

There are a lot of factors but I’ll speak about the ones that I think are most significant.

Bad News

The news is key here because a lot of family and friends are worried that all of us crypto holders have lost all of our money.  Even with Bitcoin around the $7-$10K mark, unless you bought in at the end of last year you’re still probably doing very well.  In general the market for most major currencies is up well over what it was in the first 3 quarters of 2017.  However, there is no denying that the charts look a little bearish but I think there will be a breakout in the coming months.

Government/Finance Manipulation

Much like the news, government and big financiers are having a big impact.  We know hedgefund investors have poured in billions.  Whether by intention or not a lot of them could be pulling money out of certain currencies to create an artificial crash and panic selling.

Too Many ICO Scams

I used to feel the word scam was used too liberally in the digital age of many honest IT companies.   However, in terms of ICO even the Ethereum Founder, Vitaly Buterik says 90% of tokens on his network are scams.  This is a very rational reason that will have a huge chill on investment. I would say blame a good portion of these problems on Ethereum honestly.  The unregulated and wild wild west of ICOs have brought government wrath and regulators banging on the door of all crypto stakeholders.

Lack of Common Sense and Proper Business and IT Practices

It is very clear to me in looking at how a lot of teams and ICOs operate that a good portion of people holding power in the cryptoworld have no clue.  If they did a lot of common sense things would be happening and they simply aren’t.

Such as Coinbase’s decision to open itself and its investors for huge losses and liability by selling Ethereum ERC20 Tokens.

The very idea of “free for all” in the cryptoworld reminds of the 90’s of the wild wild west of the World Wide Web and the lessons I thought we all learned.  Admittedly, and clearly, a lot of people have forgotten or were not old enough to be around for that.

I could say more but it’s so clear that essential business and IT practices have been thrown to the wind.  This is a huge impact on a lot of the issues the cryptoworld has been facing.

The Coming

I am still very optimistic about the long-term crypto outcome, but there are a lot of self-created and external factors at this moment.  I do think it is temporary but a dot bomb in crypto will certainly be repeated and appear.  The currencies and teams who didn’t learn from the 90’s will likely be the first ones swept away, leaving way for the next generation of cryptocurrency that simply just works for people and business.

Bitmain Reportedly Creates an Ethereum ETHash and Cryptonight Monero ASIC Miner

Some analysts on Wallstreet are claiming this and I would say it is likely credible seeing as how a Cryptonote Miner is being sold on their site now.

1. Hashing algorithm: CryptoNight

Power consumption: 550W

Hashrate: 220KH/s

These are the most conservative estimates. We expect the miners to deliver higher performance and efficiency when they are ready to ship.

2. There are financial risks associated with mining cryptocurrencies. These risks can be related to changes in exchange rate of the cryptocurrency or to changes in the algorithm that is used to mine the cryptocurrency. Please deliberate well before making a purchase because we will not accept any requests for refund for orders of this batch.

3. One major cryptocurrency which is using CryptoNight hash function is about to change their PoW algothrim, and according to their public statement, it is purposely to brick ASIC mining rigs including X3. When you buying it, you are betting that they are wrong

This is one instance where I am happy with Bitmain (unlike the scam they pull where the miner you buy will mine for them until you change the config!  They could at least default it to an account on Hashnet that gives you credit).  But in all fairness for the X3 Cryptonight miner they have given fair warning that there are two significant risks and issues with using their ASIC.

Cryptonight apparently has threatened to do something that would cause these ASICs to brick.  Even if they won’t be bricked Cryptonight has pledged to stop the use of these ASICs which is a huge threat to owning these units from Bitmain.

This could get interesting if they do release an Ethereum ASIC but Ethereum itself has stated they will eventually move to PoS (Proof of State) which will essentially stop all mining.

If the above scenarios play out then I believe most people would point their GPUs at ZCash and Monero instead and those currencies would rise in value.

We’re in very curious and serious times for cryptocurrencies between uncertainty over regulation, government, mining and the future value.  Is Bitmain leading to its doom or leading the market to more growth?

Time will tell and it is really hard to call which way it heads.

Coinbase To Support Ethereum ERC20 Tokens

Coinbase just announced it will be supporting the trade of ERC20 tokens.  A lot of times in the crypto world I look and shake my head and I just can’t stop with this one.  I could see if Coinbase wanted to support actual currencies like Ripple, Lumens, Monero etc… those are reasonably safe currencies to invest in.

ICOs which are essentially crowdfunding/pseudo-stocks (depending on who you ask) are extremely risk and I would say about 90% of those are fraudulent in that they collect your coins and never intended to deliver anything.  I think we can all agree at any rate that ICOs are extremely risky and HODLING may be as useful with those tokens as holding RIM stock.

Coinbase has a huge client base and is one of the easiest ways for people to get into cryptocurrency.  However, they risk bringing regulatory wrath and also dampening new investors from coming in when they get burnt on these ICO scams.

It’s recently come to my attention that some people weren’t aware that Ethereum Smart Contracts or ERC20 tokens are not vetted, supported or approved by the Ethereum team in any way.  This is  huge issue of course and why I am so against smart contracts at the moment.  Let’s get cryptocurrency as an infrastructure in terms of B2B,B2C,C2C etc… working fast, efficiently, securely and easily before biting off more than we can chew!

I am also at a loss as to how the Coinbase legal team approved this one?  Did they run it by any counsel at all?  I think if and when people lose massive amounts that Coinbase could be held liable regardless of waivers and disclaimers for losses in some of the huge ICO busts and scams to come.  Especially when there are so many other avenues and stable currencies they could have directed their customers to.

I am fearful for the investors, for Coinbase and the cryptocurrency market as a whole but should these warnings go unheeded and “things go terribly wrong” then it would be a good, fresh start for the industry.  Investors also need to do their diligence and exercise good understanding and judgement before making investment decisions.

It will be interesting to see where this leads but I would never recommend any friend or family member to invest in any Ethereum Based Token ICO and to stick with solid and real cryptocurrencies that solve the problems of today.