What does “HODLING” mean in cryptocurrency and Bitcoin Trading Strategy?

HODLING-POST-AreebYasir

So here’s the post on Bitcointalk.org that apparently started it all once it made the rounds on reddit:

 

I type d that tyitle twice because I knew it was wrong the first time.  Still wrong.  w/e.  GF’s out at a lesbian bar, BTC crashing WHY AM I HOLDING? I’LL TELL YOU WHY.  It’s because I’m a bad trader and I KNOW I’M A BAD TRADER.  Yeah you good traders can spot the highs and the lows pit pat piffy wing wong wang just like that and make a millino bucks sure no problem bro.  Likewise the weak hands are like OH NO IT’S GOING DOWN I’M GONNA SELL he he he and then they’re like OH GOD MY ASSHOLE when the SMART traders who KNOW WHAT THE FUCK THEY’RE DOING buy back in but you know what?  I’m not part of that group.  When the traders buy back in I’m already part of the market capital so GUESS WHO YOU’RE CHEATING day traders NOT ME~!  Those taunt threads saying “OHH YOU SHOULD HAVE SOLD” YEAH NO SHIT.  NO SHIT I SHOULD HAVE SOLD.  I SHOULD HAVE SOLD MOMENTS BEFORE EVERY SELL AND BOUGHT MOMENTS BEFORE EVERY BUY BUT YOU KNOW WHAT NOT EVERYBODY IS AS COOL AS YOU.  You only sell in a bear market if you are a good day trader or an illusioned noob.  The people inbetween hold.  In a zero-sum game such as this, traders can only take your money if you sell.

My wife asked me what the term “HODLING” or “HODL” meant because it’s been referenced all over social media.  I honestly just thought it was the ticket symbol for Interstellar Holdings HOLD spelled wrong!

In the above post the poster goes on a rant about why they decided to hold apparently to spite the “day traders”.  Some have said the poster was drunk but could it also just be an angry rant, combined with life issues and a few typos?

We may never know for sure because I haven’t read the hundreds of pages in the thread and I am not sure where the poster is now or if they’ve still held their BTC or not.  If they’ve still hold on until recently they’ve obviously been right to hold but as we all say “hindsight is 20/20” back in those days no one was sure Bitcoin would continue its metaphoric rise to hit the 20K mark and settle back down at the approximately 13K mark at the time of this writing.

Whatever the real story may have been behind the post, a lot of crypto traders and investors are really referring this rant to explain just how wise it is to hold onto their currency despite apparent crashes.

Personally I’m all for HODLING if it’s based on fear and not by a real technical or game changer in a currency.

Bitcoin Gold Scam Heist – Who Should Be Held Responsible?

For those who don’t know Bitcoin Gold is yet another fork from Bitcoin.  As many users warned even before this, with BCH (Bitcoin Cash) to be careful of these coins because they have NO official wallet and rely on random third party wallets.  Particular there were warnings for BCH that if you try claiming your free BCH that a bad wallet creator could take your wallet.dat to steal your actual BTC (Bitcoins) so prudent users moved money from their original wallet before claiming.

With Bitcoin Gold the issue was different, there was no wallet (I have no idea how so many projects don’t have their own guaranteed, safe original wallets) so people were understandably looking to get into BTG with a wallet.  One such wallet was “mybtgwallet.com” who the BTG team recommended on their website and Twitter.

JohnDassbtg

This wallet was apparently created by someone they claimed to work with and a developer named “John Dass”, essentially the wallet asked users to upload keys and passwords for their other currencies and ultimately many people lost a lot of money totaling in the millions of various coins including Bitcoin and Ethereum.  The BTG team seems to dispute this version of events and claim John Dass was not a developer but then why and how can some random person declare themselves a developer and scam users so easily?  This is a big part of the basis of the lawsuit against the BTG team.

Making matters worse, their official Twitter account advised the mybtgwallet was safe to use.  Deleted Tweet sourced from here:

BitcoinGoldRecommends-mybtgwallet-scam-walletbtg2

Lots of users on Reddit began calling the BTG team out and some have apparently filed a lawsuit.

WARNING: Bitcoin Gold’s official website linked to a scam wallet that stole user funds, including my own, for weeks. from BitcoinMarkets

I don’t see that BTG has been up front about the issue.  It’s been reported that the BTG team did their best to silence news of this and threatened the victims that they wouldn’t be compensated if they made their experience public.  If that is true it really speaks volumes about the project, team, trustworthiness and integrity of the coin.

If the Reddit community and experiences are true as posted online then I would say BTG is liable for the losses for many reasons with aggravating factors being that they did little to vet, warn or stop this scam from happening and have appeared to have not helped the victims.

 

Screenshot-CRITICAL WARNING - Bitcoin Gold - Mozilla Firefox

What are my personal thoughts and opinion?

Looking at their team profile looks has little to no information.  Most projects at least have a bio and more info about their background.

Their lead developer is named “h4x3rotab” with no picture or info at all so I’m very skeptical.

Screenshot-Team - Bitcoin Gold - Mozilla Firefox

I’ve reached out to the BTG team and will post any response if any.

2018 Year of the Dogecoin Prediction as it crosses the 1 cent mark!

I’ve held Dogecoin for some time and never really considered it the “internet meme joke based currency” that some consider it and recently bought more as  I saw it approaching the 1 cent mark.  Those days are gone with a Christmas Present of Dogecoin crossing the 1 cent mark!  In fact it is been surging lately despite naysayers predicting its demise for various reasons.  One huge thing Dogecoin has always had is a loyal and large community who uses the currency.

dogecoin-2017-2018-47percent-surge

Now that Litecoin has hit the $300 USD territory and many other altcoins are very expensive clearly others have seen the value and potential in Dogecoin.   In fact I believe it is undervalued and in the past 7 days Doge has nearly doubled to reach the 1 cent mark and market cap of 1.2 billion!  It’s a huge milestone and for those who remember way long ago, there was a point where Doge was equivalent in value to Bitcoin!

I believe 2018 is Doge’s time to shine and it is definitely going to head into Litecoin territory (possibly the tens of dollar range in 2o18).  Essentially the Dogecoin client looks the same as Bitcoin’s and Litecoin’s.  In terms of technology though Dogecoin is more like a derivative or little cousin of Litecoin in the sense they both use Scrypt technology.

This is a good thing because I’ve never had delays or issues with sending or receiving Litecoin or Dogecoin, whereas Bitcoin can be slow and Ethereum is a nightmare to use (it is the worst wallet/client/network I have ever used and I absolutely dread Ethereum).

I think amazing things are going to go down for Dogecoin holders, likely not as big as long-time Bitcoin holders but I think in the coming years, Dogecoin users will be handsomely rewarded as the value skyrockets.

Another reason Dogecoin is rising is because of research, awareness and it is also a plain good buy compared to a lot of other much more expensive altcoins I firmly believe Dogecoin is largely undervalued.  Dogecoin is a long-time crypto whose stability has been tested and proven for years.

I’m bullish on Dogecoin so long as the developers keep working on and marketing this currency and if they cap the supply.  I don’t think it will take much for Dogecoin to see meteoric rise so long as those conditions are met.

 

 

“Sexual Misconduct” is a misleading term

Normally I wouldn’t blog about this but as a human and also a business owner I think it’s important to clarify principles and beliefs.  This new term “Sexual Misconduct” has me absolutely cynical, puzzled and upset at the same time.  Whatever the term, the action and harm is still the same and shouldn’t be tolerated to anyone, anywhere but unfortunately has been commonplace especially in the entertainment industry but certainly not limited to one industry as well.

I used to play sports, and “sexual misconduct” reminds me of a getting a yellow card for a bad check or 2 minutes in the penalty box.  The term in my mind is an attempt at lessening the severity of what really amounts to sexual harassment and sexual assault.  There is no in between and it should never be called “misconduct” because it just sounds like someone making a mistake during a sporting match who deserves a minor penalty.

Just because some high profile names are in the news everyday is no reason to make the crime sound better by calling it a form of “misconduct”.

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Altcoin Crash – What You Need To Know

So essentially overnight Bitcoin lost 40% but at this point is still at this point at nearly $15000 and I believe will recover the $20K mark before the New Year (probably).  Some people have asked me what “FUD” is and blame it for the drop which stands for Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt.  I’m not buying that.  I also want to give a shoutout to Max Kessler who called a lot of things right about Bitcoin and predicted a sharp correction around the $20K mark but insists Bitcoin will keep running much higher.

If you look at the charts for the top 100 cryptocurrencies you will see an almost simultaneous drop in all of them.  Now if this just happened in the top 10 or a handful I would believe it is people taking profits randomly (nothing organized or not VERY large sellers).

Could Charlie Lee (creator or Litecoin/LTC) have triggered this? Yes I believe so and I don’t understand his reasoning for selling all of his position.  It’s no conflict to own your own coin and try to make it succeed.  To many acute investors they would have viewed this like a company about to bankrupt and the executives dump all of their stocks.  I certainly don’t think this was Charlie’s intention or concern at all though.

Look at the chart of the top 10 or even top 100 and they look eerily similar.  Massive selloffs with similar percentage losses of up to 30%.  The only good news or winner here is that Ripple (XRP) hardly lost anything and recovered faster than the others.

So am I worried about crypto or that there is a bubble? Yes and no, I think it has a number of years to run before the risk of a formed bubble bursting happens (and it will be massive bleeding when it does…).  But what triggered this current drop of all currencies simultaneously?

My theory is that billions of dollars of hedgefund money has come in, and in the last few weeks the currencies had significant appreciation and like some stock traders, these managers took massive profits which will look very great to the portfolio and their clients.

Now this is where it gets scary because if a small amount of people precipitated this event then it becomes easy for a small group of people to control, manipulate and play the market.

I’m not shaken from what happened, nor do I believe it was the “FUD”, I’m still long on crypto including Bitcoin but as always proceed with caution as we are heading into completely uncharted territories with massive volatility being the norm for now.  I will believe more in the FUD as Bitcoin gets higher though because those who have bought in at such high levels have a lot more to risk and worry about.

Net Neutrality – USA’s Version of the GFW – Death of Freedom and Information

If you can understand the title you can probably guess where this article is going.  This is both my personal and professional opinion on a blindingly, obvious and simple issue that only benefits extremely large and powerful organizations and individuals.

What is really happening in a one-liner is the US is implementing it’s own Great Firewall Policy to rival and surpass China’s by far in terms of surveillance and censorship.

This is really a no-argument, argument the latest move in the US to get rid of Net Neutrality legally gives the ISPs the right to block, filter, throttle and censor content for any reason.  Obviously the primary and initial reasons will be for business and competitive reasons, this means if your ISP has an issue with Google you could have issues reaching Google services.  It could be if your healthcare provider is suing your ISP or vice versa that you’ll have trouble accessing their website.  It could be that your less than mainstream news sources are competing or disliked by management at your local ISP and you won’t be able to visit anymore.

Some of the first to be impacted may be services like Netflix, Hulu etc which most local cable or telco companies have lost a lot of revenue to.

But it can become so much more than this, access to certain banking portals, including cryptocurrency could be restricted.  In fact another huge implication is that if a US government agency orders an ISP to block access to content, both the government and ISP would be legally absolved.

Since the majority of internet traffic still transits the US and a huge number of services are hosted there, the impact is really the whole internet.

However, we can already see legal challenges on the way.  If they are successful then things will continue as normal but if they are not successful, the internet could enter a dark age.

In fact this should be interpreted more as the USA’s version of the Great Firewall masked as a good thing with ill-intentions that will harm virtually all people and businesses.

I don’t believe we will see massive changes overnight, the system will be implemented gradually to reduce the blowback.

With this insecurity there is also the chance that this could backfire and could create an alternative internet or secondary network that operates independently out of Asia, Europe, the Middle East and Latin America.  There is simply too much at stake to risk the USA Great Firewall from impacting business and freedom of access and information.  There is also the unintended risk that the USA could be isolating itself if other countries develop countermeasures.

Can VPN’s help get around this throttling?  Yes, and no as now the ISPs could legally block or throttle access to VPN providers’ websites, service or even the protocols themselves.  There is very little that can be done against these measures, it depends how the USA’s firewall is implemented though.  It may be possible to use a variety of protocols and proxy your traffic through hundreds of thousands of IPs collectively to try to avoid blockages and throttling, but it all depends on how aggressive their policies are.  Only the stakeholders who have unleashed this policy know what they really intend to achieve but it certainly isn’t of any benefit to us.

From my standpoint there is no benefit from me as an internet user or business person in having a censored, throttled and firewalled internet.

All speculation aside, it would be wise for both users and businesses to hedge and place their business IT assets overseas at least in backup or secondary mode.  this is the best way to insure against the risk that your business could be severely impacted or inaccessible due to the USA GFW 5.0 as I dub it.  Certainly Asia and Europe are locations that look attractive.  One of the top destinations in Asia to me would be Hong Kong’s internet, in fact I predict Hong Kong and other areas will see a surge in demand as a result of the current firewall policy in the US.

NCIX Declares Bankruptcy – My 15 Year Story of a 20 Year Journey For Netlink Computer

NCIX began as a typical player in the booming 1997 computer hardware era and quickly grew to rival and arguably best all competition in Canada as one of the largest computer hardware companies while other competitors went out of business in a segment many felt was unsustainable.

For me the story started around 2002 when I was still in post secondary at BCIT but as I began writing this I couldn’t help by deviate from back in 1997 when I was 13 and was excited to get my first computed which would be the one that would set me on the path to the IT industry from a very young age.

Going Off Track – My Computer History

I used to go to the famous area of Richmond on Bridgeport Road where all the computer stores were, of course there were areas in Broadway in Vancouver too.   My first computer that I remember proudly as a Pentium 75Mhz with 8MB of RAM and a large 1GB HDD made by IPC (a local Vancouver manufacturer) ironically from a place in Whiterock (they had the best deal I knew of at the time).  The second computer I owned came from this area of Richmond (the name of the retailer eludes me but I believe there is now a textile or paint supplier in the same building!).  In Richmond I remember Cici from Canada Computer aka cancomputer.com who went out of business around 2004-2005 (a different company than today’s Canada Computer which is ironically taking over most of the old leases from NCIX).  Canada Computer was always good to me so I shopped quite a bit there.

Back On Track

Getting back on track to 2002, I bought a few parts in Vancouver from a place called ATIC but then heard about NCIX, their price matching and friendly service.  I actually still have one of the first items an old 80GB IDE Hard Drive with an NCIX label from back then.

So essentially since 2002 I’ve been a customer of NCIX that has purchased a LOT of equipment from them and have probably built dozens of computers from them.  Their prices and service were great, albeit I knew they had the typical restocking fees that the oldschool retailers did (an accepted part of business since I’ve never needed to return anything because I always knew what I was buying and what I wanted).  My experiences were generally very good but I will comment on the few issues I had, around 2006 during boxing day I had to keep following up on some Optical Discs I had bought that weren’t delivered to me.  A few times I bought SATA cables from them and was shocked to find broken connectors in them, the staff at the Langley store was somewhat unpleasant at these exchanges insisting “these are all brand new”.   Now that I think about it, it could have just been left over molding from production especially since looking back at the cables they don’t seem to be of the highest quality for sure.  Fast forward to the last few years I noticed their prices have increased, they had less stock, things took longer to get, longer to ship and once I ordered an item online by mistake and told them right away (but they still shipped it and replied after I got the product and made no offer to resolve the issue).  Still, these weren’t deal breakers but I did notice as they expanded their retail front that the prices and service were slightly decreasing especially on my favorite site directcanada.com and two other similar sites they ran.

The sign of the end

One of their flagship stores in Aberdeen Center (Richmond BC) closed down and at that point I didn’t suspect much (a lot of stores close down there because the rent is super high).  But over the last 2 years or so I saw the decline of the Langley and Surrey store, the shelves were in disarray, there were few staff members and almost no stock on the floor (not an issue for me still) but I couldn’t help but say each time “are you guys closing?”.  I’ve never paid attention to the NCIX forums but happened to browse it when I placed my last order the other month (an order still not fulfilled and one I don’t believe will be with the amount of customers saying they’ve waited weeks or months for refunds for non-delivered products).  The Surrey store closed around Nov 18th suddenly just a few days after I picked up a few power supplies (at that point when I was in the store and was told they turned their phones off and that’s why no one answered my calls I was suspicious). I  saw a list of closures on the NCIX forums, saw a deleted thread on Redflagdeals about them going bankrupt (presumably and upsettingly because NCIX was a Sponsor of RFD).  However a more thorough search showed their other locations were up for lease and were being taken over by competitors such as Canada Computers.

Why Did They Go Under?

From what I’ve read and suspected initially is that the expansion with so many extra stores did it and I read further that management believed more in retail than online ultimately killed them, on top of internal and customer service issues, things compounded fast and it’s all spilling out on social media with disgruntled customers and ex-employees.  I’ve personally known a number of NCIX employees and they all had good things to say about their experience but this was in the pre-2012 days.

It appears cash flow issues related to the retail expansion and apparently a completely unsuccessful expansion into the US (full of complaints) is what brought it down.  The price and stock issues I believe were just a symptom of the larger issue of cash flow and losses due to unprofitable brick and mortar stores.

NCIX-Closing-Down-Bankrupt

NCIX-ComplaintsNCIX-Complaints1

Why Am I Upset?

I’ve been a loyal customer for over 15-years and right until the end the ownership of NCIX never made any announcement whatsoever, and to this day they are still taking orders and collecting money.

NCIX-Areeb-Yasir1

This is where I get upset and would say that I would never do business with any new company under that same ownership/management in the future.  It also seems this was completely avoidable if the management had heeded internal and external suggestions about improving and increasing the online shopping experience. My only complaint is that you couldn’t search by price or sort items by price.  Even with the bankruptcy I believe they could have continued to succeed and restructure by being online only or just a handful of very small stores for sales and online order pickups but at this stage with the amount of negative attention generated and my own situation I don’t think it could be successful.

The other part that is disappointing is that while I do suspect many complaints about the ownership to be true, there are also racial undertones to it which seem to stem from a time long before the complaints started.  And for that reason I do believe some claims may need to be taken with a grain of salt aside from the facts of the customer experience going horribly wrong in recent months and years.